Sweeping US tariffs fail to deliver on stated goals

A year after the United States implemented sweeping protectionist tariffs, official statistics reveal Washington has largely failed to achieve its stated goals, while triggering unintended negative consequences across the world.

While the US government promoted tariffs as a cure-all to economic challenges, experts say they have proven ineffective at addressing structural issues like fiscal imbalances and industrial decline. Instead, they warn that the measures risk backfiring, fragmenting global trade and adding uncertainty to the world economy.

On April 2 last year, Washington announced broad tariffs targeting dozens of countries with stated aims including reshoring manufacturing, reducing trade deficit, and stimulating domestic growth. One year later, results have fallen short.

US federal statistics on reshoring show a grim picture: US manufacturers have cut jobs almost every month since last April, with only brief respites in January and March.

The progress to shrink the trade deficit is also floundering. According to government data, the trade deficit for US goods widened by 2.1 percent to a record $1.24 trillion in 2025. The total US trade deficit shrank by only $2.1 billion in 2025, mainly due to an increase in the services trade surplus.

Experts described these outcomes as predictable, as tariffs are an inadequate solution for structural economic problems such as manufacturing decline and trade deficits.

Luo Zhenxing, an associate research fellow at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed to the "manufacture reshoring" goal to illustrate the inherent limitations of tariffs.

"After hyper-globalization, the division of labor has become too intricate and deep to be disrupted by tariffs alone in a short time," he said. "Additionally, with US domestic costs remaining comparatively high, low-to-mid-end manufacturing is unlikely to return. Reshoring also requires long-term investment and a stable environment, yet constant changes in US tariff policy create uncertainty that complicates long-term planning for companies."

Song Guoyou, deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said,"The US government has exaggerated the role of tariffs. The economic issues it aims to address are more internal and structural. Trying to use trade and tariffs to force an adjustment is fundamentally misguided — it's an attempt to avoid the difficult domestic reforms actually required."

Beyond failing to deliver on their stated objectives, the tariffs have generated a host of negative side effects. According to the US Commerce Department's National Travel and Tourism Office, total foreign travel to the US was down 5.4 percent through November, as protective tariffs hurt the country's international appeal.

This decline is largely due to 4 million fewer visits from Canadian travelers, representing a staggering 22 percent drop from the previous year. Forbes estimates that this translates to an economic loss of about $4.5 billion.

Disrupting supply chains

Neil Bradley, executive vice president and chief policy officer of the US Chamber of Commerce, said in a recent statement, "After a full year of higher tariffs, the costs are unmistakable. Tariffs have increased prices, disrupted supply chains and added uncertainty for the very families and businesses they are meant to help."

A Yale Budget Lab report released in February predicts that tariffs will increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2026. In the long run, the US economy is forecast to be persistently 0.1 percent smaller.

Luo explained that tariffs hurt the US economy by discouraging investment and raising prices on imports, which erodes consumer purchasing power. "Tariffs have also driven up costs for businesses that rely on foreign materials and components, forcing price increases that weaken the competitiveness of US exporters."

The damage extends beyond immediate costs to confidence in US assets. Song noted that by weaponizing mutually beneficial trade relationships, the US has heightened foreign investors' concerns about the nation's policy uncertainty.

"The long-held belief of American exceptionalism — that global capital flees to the US in crises — is being shattered by the US' self-inflicted tariff crisis," he said.

Signs of shifting confidence are emerging. The US Dollar Index fell 9 percent in 2025, its worst performance since 2017, according to the Kobeissi Letter, a financial newsletter. Goldman Sachs forecasts the dollar will continue to weaken in 2026 due to diminishing demand for US assets.

Meanwhile, European and Asian stock markets outperformed their US counterparts in 2025, suggesting investors are beginning to diversify away, US media reported.

"The unpredictability of US government policy is heightening uncertainty around US assets and eroding international confidence in them,"Luo said. "This will undermine the US economy and may even jeopardize the position of the US dollar."

Despite a February US Supreme Court ruling that struck down the legal basis for the reciprocal tariffs as unconstitutional, the US administration swiftly announced replacement measures and launched investigations into unfair trade practices.

This persistence signals that protectionist "America First" policies may become a lasting feature, with negative implications for the global economic order, experts warned.

"The US tariff policies will lead to a fragmentation of the global trading system," Song said. "Faced with US protectionism, other countries are ramping up efforts to uphold free trade, creating two distinct camps. One is a US-centric protectionist camp, and the other is committed to maintaining the global free trade system."

Luo said that prolonged US protectionism has already disrupted the global economic order. "The world faces significant uncertainty and adjustment, with fragmentation risks rising rapidly. This will ultimately hinder global economic development."

Agencies contributed to this story.

yangran1@chinadaily.com.cn