'Entrenched' polarization shrouding US future

As the United States marks the 250th anniversary of its founding, polls show growing public pessimism about the country's political future. Experts say deepening polarization is eroding confidence at home and weakening Washington's ability to provide stable global leadership.

A survey released on Saturday by Elon University in North Carolina found that 68 percent of respondents believe political divisions will worsen over the next 50 years, while 64 percent have little or no confidence that US political institutions will make mostly good decisions over that period.

Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, said political polarization was the issue respondents viewed most pessimistically.

"We've now basically had a generation and a half, or arguably two generations, of significant political divide in the United States, and very few people see a clear way out of deep, entrenched political polarization," he said in the survey report.

Similarly, an April poll by The Associated Press and the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago found that 27 percent of respondents identified political interests or values as the country's main source of division, followed by leaders, government or elites (14 percent) and economic interests or values (14 percent).

A Gallup poll released last month also reflected the bleak public mood. Only 19 percent of US citizens said the signers of the Declaration of Independence would be pleased with the country's development, while 77 percent believed the nation's founders would be disappointed, up from 71 percent in 2013 and 42 percent in 2001.

He Yun, an associate professor at Hunan University's School of Public Administration and a researcher at Tsinghua University's Belt and Road Institute, said the polls reflect not merely a temporary shift in public sentiment but a deeper structural crisis in people's sense of national identity.

The disappointment stems from multiple sources, she said. "Trust in the political system has declined, as the public increasingly believes political institutions are unable to represent the broader public interest."

Meanwhile, social cohesion has weakened as divisions along partisan, ethnic and class lines have become more entrenched, she said.

"The promise of the 'American Dream' has also faded. Income inequality, unequal access to education, rising housing costs and declining intergenerational mobility have left many people less confident about the future," she added.

Chen Hong, director of East China Normal University's Asia-Pacific Studies Center, said many issues in the US have become increasingly politicized, with partisan rivalry deepening social divisions and heightening tensions.

"Partisan rivalry is only a symptom of deeper structural problems, including a widening wealth gap, persistent racial tensions and declining public trust in political institutions," Chen said.

"Combined with the current administration's confrontational and highly mobilizing political style, these factors have further intensified social divisions. To a considerable extent, polarization has gone beyond the scope of normal democratic political competition," he said.

Healthy competition

Healthy democratic competition, He said, is built on respect for established rules, acceptance of election results and recognition of the legitimacy of political opponents.

"In contrast, US politics has increasingly become a contest over the rules themselves, encompassing disputes over election results, judicial independence, media credibility and the limits of executive power," she said.

Both experts said such policy swings are making it harder for allies and partners to predict Washington's long-term strategic direction.

"For example, the current US administration has increasingly treated tariffs as bargaining chips and invoked national security as a broad justification for policy measures, approaching relations with allies and other trading partners through the lens of short-term transactional interests," Chen said.

A recent survey by the Pew Research Center covering 36 countries found global views of the US have deteriorated amid growing concerns over its foreign policy and the state of its democracy.

"Rising uncertainty in US foreign policy will have far-reaching consequences," He said.

"US allies are expected to accelerate efforts to hedge against strategic risks by reducing their reliance on Washington in security, technology and supply chains," she said.

"It will also become more difficult to build stable expectations for global governance, as Washington's shifting approach to multilateral institutions — alternating between engagement and withdrawal — undermines international coordination on issues including climate change, trade, public health and financial stability," she said.

The international order will likely enter a prolonged period of low trust and heightened volatility, He said. While the US will remain a major country, its ability to shape the global order will be increasingly constrained by deepening domestic divisions, she added.