China unveils plan for faster green transition

China published on Wednesday its national climate change response plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period, setting a target to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 17 percent from 2025 levels by 2030 and identifying the period as critical for achieving the nation's carbon peak.

The plan, jointly issued by 19 departments, including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission, states that China will strengthen monitoring and control of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases and develop the capacity to reduce their emissions by 30 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030.

It also sets out goals to establish a comprehensive product carbon footprint management system and improve the climate adaptation work framework.

Ma Jun, founding director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, said the target of 17 percent is linked to China's nationally determined contribution to lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by over 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.

The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period barely achieved a comparable reduction, and the task will get harder as the Chinese economy continues to grow, he said.

"China's installed capacity for renewable energy surpassed the 2030 target six years ahead of schedule. The real challenge lies in effective consumption. While nonfossil energy accounts for more than 60 percent of installed capacity, its actual consumption makes up only 21.7 percent," Ma added.

Hu Wentao, an associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Research Institute for Eco-civilization, said the plan signals a further shift from dual control over total energy consumption and energy intensity to dual control over total carbon emissions and carbon intensity.

"Traditional control over energy consumption focuses primarily on the amount of energy used. It does not fully reflect the differences between clean energy and fossil fuels in terms of carbon emissions, and its implementation may sometimes result in a one-size-fits-all approach," Hu said.

When authorities review and approve projects, the amount of carbon emissions will become an important parameter for consideration, he said.

The relevant control targets will be broken down and assigned to provincial-level regions, further implemented by local governments at the municipal level, and translated into clearer emissions control and reduction responsibilities for key enterprises, Hu said.

"This approach addresses the issue more directly and carries greater regulatory force," he added.

Song Xiaoyu, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, highlighted that climate change is adding instability to the energy transition.

A strong El Nino phenomenon this year has directly affected water inflows at major hydropower bases in Southwest China, while extreme rainfall has forced reservoir operators to release water for flood control, rather than power generation, Song said.

He pointed out that high temperatures have also reduced the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic panels, forcing thermal power to step in as demand for electricity continues to rise.

"Our study found that the rate of carbon intensity reduction in the first half of this year has slowed compared with the same period last year," Song said.

To cope with growing climate-driven volatility, it is essential to optimize hydropower dispatch mechanisms, make full use of weather and precipitation forecasts, and adjust reservoir storage and generation structures to maximize clean energy output, he said.