Analysts see opportunities for ASEAN

The global order is entering a period of profound transformation, marked by intensifying geopolitical rivalry, economic fragmentation, and the rise of the Global South, which offers challenges and opportunities for Southeast Asia, according to a recent seminar.

Experts said the key question for the region is how the Association of Southeast Asian Nations can preserve its centrality and turn disruption into an opportunity to shape a more inclusive regional order.

They were speaking at the 13th Chula-ASEAN Dialogue — themed "The Once and Future ASEAN: Global Shifts, Institutional Agility, and the Path to 2045" — on Tuesday at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, Thailand.

"The decline of Western dominance is inevitable and not synonymous with the end of Western civilization," said Amitav Acharya, distinguished professor of international relations at the School of International Service at American University.

Rather than viewing the transition as a contest between the West and the rest, Acharya argued that the changing balance of power could be an opportunity to build a more pluralistic international system drawing on the contributions of different civilizations.

"The contemporary world order is a shared creation across multiple civilizations, not dominated by any single country or region," Acharya said, emphasizing that interdependence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, institutions and free trade have evolved as globally shared principles rather than the exclusive products of the West.

That perspective is particularly relevant to ASEAN, a region positioned at the intersection of major powers and increasingly influenced by the rise of emerging economies.

"For ASEAN, the more consequential question is whether a fragmented world can still sustain cooperation, and how to maintain strategic autonomy while avoiding a fragmented regional environment in which countries are pressured to choose sides," he said.

Piti Srisangnam, executive director of the ASEAN Foundation, described the current environment as one of unprecedented uncertainty driven by geopolitical rivalries, economic fragmentation, supply-chain restructuring, climate disruptions, and rapid digital transformation.

"Rather than resisting change, we anchor our resilience in openness, inclusivity, and cooperative frameworks," Piti said, arguing that ASEAN's strength lies in its ability to remain cohesive, relevant, and forward-looking.

He said the emphasis on openness comes as globalization itself becomes increasingly fragmented.

At the same time, other experts argued that Southeast Asia's economic integration has become more complicated as some countries deepen their ties with major partners while navigating competing regional frameworks.

Suthiphand Chirathivat, former executive director of the ASEAN Studies Center at Chulalongkorn University, said: "Many ASEAN countries are pursuing a 'dual-track' strategy, seeking market access and investment without fully aligning with either side (China and the US)."

Arthayudh Srisamoot, a former adviser to Thailand's minister of foreign affairs, said ASEAN should strengthen both internal cohesion and its external strategic presence.

Rather than replicating the European Union's model of deep integration, he said the bloc should focus on practical connectivity, intra-regional trade, and unified positions on regional frameworks and agreements such as the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

"ASEAN must strengthen both internal cohesion and external strategic presence," Arthayudh said, adding that the bloc needs faster and more coordinated mechanisms to address nontraditional threats such as climate change, transboundary environmental problems, and public health crises.

Broadening partnerships

Experts said ASEAN's future prosperity will also depend on how successfully it broadens its economic partnerships.

The traditional markets of the US, the European Union, and Japan will remain important, Arthayudh said.

However, he also urged ASEAN to actively engage emerging partners — including China, Russia, India, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America — through targeted investment, technical cooperation, and infrastructure development.

Meanwhile, for China — a major country in the Global South and one of ASEAN's biggest trading partners — the changing world order presents both a responsibility and an opportunity, according to Acharya.

He suggested that China should serve as a constructive bridge between the existing international order and an emerging, more pluralistic one.

Acharya said this should involve not only infrastructure initiatives, but also help in contributing ideas, strengthening global governance, supporting humanitarian efforts, and expanding participation in multilateral institutions.

yangwanli@chinadaily.com.cn