Trump's three-day tariff pause gives Canada a reprieve, not a solution, experts say

US President Donald Trump's decision to pause new 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods for three days offers Canada temporary relief but is unlikely to resolve deeper trade tensions between the two countries, experts said.

Trump said on Tuesday night that Canada and the United States had reached a deal, subject to the finalization of documents, and that he had paused the tariffs that were due to take effect on Wednesday.

The move came as the two countries remained engaged in intensive trade negotiations, with Canada seeking relief from existing US tariffs while Washington pushed for greater access to the Canadian market.

Ronald Stagg, a history professor at Toronto Metropolitan University and an expert on Canadian-American relations, said the emerging deal would likely address several issues that have drawn the Trump administration's attention.

He said the issues could include access to Canada's alcohol market, greater access for US dairy products, and potentially restrictions on Canadian vehicles and vehicle parts entering the United States.

"The latest 'deal', as Trump would call it, should it be finalized, will likely address some of the sectors that most annoy the Trump government," Stagg told China Daily.

In return, Canada would likely seek reductions in US tariffs on steel, aluminum and softwood lumber, as well as some relief for its auto industry, he said.

But Stagg said Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's government was facing a difficult balancing act as it sought to reach an agreement with Washington without appearing to give too much ground at home.

"The Carney government is walking a fine line in these negotiations," Stagg said. "While hoping to give enough to please the American government, it must be seen by the Canadian people to have achieved a fair deal for Canada."

He said there was already a perception in Canada that the country had "given up a substantial amount to the Americans".

Julian Castro-Rea, a political science professor at the University of Alberta, said the dispute reflected broader challenges in Canada-US trade relations.

He argued that Trump's tariff policy had disrupted a deeply integrated North American production and investment system.

"He threw a monkey wrench into a trade, production and investment system between the two countries that was working reasonably well," Castro-Rea told China Daily.

Castro-Rea also challenged the argument that Canada was taking advantage of the United States through its trade surplus, saying that many Canadian products sold in the United States contain US-made components.

"The argument that Canada is taking advantage of the US by enjoying a trade surplus — the main motivation for the tariff dispute — is ludicrous, since most 'Canadian' finished products sold in the US incorporate a large number of components made in the US," he said.

He pointed to the auto industry as a particularly clear example, noting that vehicles assembled in Canada depend heavily on parts produced in the United States and Mexico.

"Therefore, the issue of tariffs is raised for political reasons alone, as an attempt to score points for Trump's MAGA coalition political brand," Castro-Rea said.

Castro-Rea said the measures would hurt targeted Canadian industries but also create costs for Americans because tariffs are paid by US importers.

"It highlights the paradox of the tariff war launched by Washington: increased tariffs hurt the Canadian economy but also the US economy," he said.

"For starters, increased tariffs are paid by US importers, not Canadian exporters. Those extra costs are then transferred to US consumers, thus making ordinary citizens in that country pay for the trade war," he said.

He added that the integration of the two economies meant some US industries would also be directly affected by higher tariffs.

Both experts noted that the three-day pause should not be viewed as an end to the broader dispute.

Stagg said it was "highly unlikely" that any agreement would resolve all the issues between the two countries.

"Donald Trump is likely to continue saying that Canada is 'ripping off' the United States, while Canada is going to want to eliminate most American tariffs.

"This deal is likely to be seen by both governments as an interim solution. Friction will remain," Stagg said.

Castro-Rea was even more skeptical about the durability of any agreement reached under the Trump administration.

Nothing is a lasting solution under the Trump administration in any policy field, including foreign and defense policies, he said.

"Experience has shown by now that any government decision can be reverted or changed under the authority of this unpredictable leader," Castro-Rea said.

Stagg said Canada's approach to trade with Washington had already changed fundamentally under Trump.

"No longer can Canada count on the United States as a friendly trade partner," he said.

Canada cannot simply walk away from its largest trading partner, however, he said.

"While the Canadian government tries to reorient as much trade as possible, it is going to have to live with the new uncertainty in dealing with the United States," Stagg said.

Castro-Rea, however, viewed the longer-term impact differently.

"I believe the current tariff controversy is only a temporary blip in Canada-US trade and economic relations," he said.

gaoyang@chinadailyusa.com