China's economy remains on targeted course of upgrading and innovation: China Daily editorial

The third-quarter data released by the State Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission on Sunday present an encouraging picture of the Chinese economy, with consumption, foreign trade and investment all moving on a stable and upward path.

The major underlying drivers of growth are strengthening, reflecting the resilience of the Chinese economy, which has continued to maintain a momentum of steady progress and improving quality despite the complex international backdrop.

Take consumption, which is the most direct embodiment of market vitality. Data on offline consumption show that in the third quarter, payments across various consumption categories increased by 2.6 percent year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the second quarter. In September, offline payments rose by 3.1 percent year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than in August, marking three consecutive months of acceleration.

Offline consumption data track in-store spending, and the growth trend shows that consumers are more willing to go out, pointing to a gradual uptick in the real economy and the operations of small businesses, especially in service sectors such as catering, travel and leisure.

This can be attributed to the sustained impact of the government's expanded and intensified pro-consumption policies. "Consumer willingness is recovering, market demand is being released, and the advantages of China's super-large market are becoming more prominent, providing strong support for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth," as Wei Ying, deputy director of the big data development department at the center, noted.

Goldman Sachs projects China's real GDP growth at 4.5 percent in 2026, meeting the government's target range, with domestic demand contributing 3.3 percentage points and net exports adding 1.2 percentage points.

Foreign trade tells a similarly positive story. In the third quarter, the load tonnage of cargo ships departing from and arriving at major Chinese ports — which is an early physical indicator of trade momentum before nominal trade figures come out — rose by 43.1 percent and 0.3 percent year-on-year, respectively.

In September alone, departing load tonnage surged by 53.2 percent year-on-year, while arriving tonnage increased by 4.5 percent. These figures are striking by any measure, as they demonstrate that, despite the rising protectionism, geopolitical tensions and uneven global demand, China's foreign trade remains hardy and dynamic. As well as sustaining its own growth, China is also keeping supply chains working smoothly, injecting much-needed certainty into global markets by reliably providing goods to trading partners.

Another source of confidence is the growth in investment, particularly in emerging strategic industries. In September, the issuance of new special-purpose bonds nationwide — which is an early signal of investment momentum before real capital flows into construction — increased by 50.2 percent year-on-year, accelerating by 43.6 percentage points compared to August. Project bidding related to new infrastructure — such as computing power, data and networks — grew by 34.2 percent in the third quarter and 50.4 percent in September. Even more remarkably, capital investment in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots surged by 184.1 percent in the third quarter and 198.7 percent in September.

These developments indicate a structural shift, with policy support directing resources toward industries that will define future competitiveness, thereby fostering the formation of new quality productive forces. This approach not only provides a solid foundation for current growth, but also builds momentum for future productivity gains. In essence, China is not merely addressing today's challenges; it is enhancing its capacity to thrive in the future.

Despite these encouraging trends, the country's economy still faces headwinds, with structural supply-demand mismatches keeping prices and profits weak, and uneven sectoral recovery leaving the property sector and local government finances under pressure. At the same time, external uncertainties — including geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions and sluggish global demand — continue to weigh on exports.

Yet, looking ahead, China's economy will retain significant advantages, including a vast domestic market, a comprehensive industrial system, abundant policy tools, and a strong commitment to innovation. By maintaining strategic focus, ensuring effective policy implementation, and nurturing new quality productive forces, China can keep its economic trajectory steady and robust.