Experts: too early to tell if super El Nino will hit this year

It is still too early to determine whether a super El Nino — a natural climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean — will develop this year, though growing online speculation about record-breaking heat and extreme weather has drawn widespread attention, experts said.

Recent discussions on social media have suggested that this year and next could become the hottest on record, raising concerns that the Earth may be approaching a powerful El Nino event capable of triggering global climate disruptions.

Experts from the National Climate Center at the China Meteorological Administration said current monitoring shows that the lingering La Nina conditions are weakening, and the tropical Pacific could shift toward an El Nino state later this year.

"There is a relatively high likelihood that the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will enter an El Nino state in the second half of this year, but it is still not possible to accurately predict its exact onset time or overall intensity," said Liu Yunyun, director of the climate prediction division at the center.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation, often known as ENSO, is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific. It typically recurs every three to seven years and can influence weather patterns worldwide.

Scientists classify ENSO phases by measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. When a three-month average anomaly exceeds 0.5 C for at least five consecutive months, the event is considered an El Nino, while a sustained anomaly below — 0.5 C indicates La Nina conditions.

Based on recent observations and model forecasts, the center said the current La Nina episode is gradually ending and will likely transition into a neutral phase in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue warming, raising the possibility that El Nino conditions could form as early as late spring, Liu said.

Historical data show that the probability of entering an El Nino phase in the same year after a La Nina ends is about one-third, she added.

Despite these projections, Liu said it remains difficult to determine precisely when an El Nino might form or how strong it would be. "It is premature to conclude that a 'super El Nino' will occur this year," she said.

Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the center's climate prediction division, said El Nino events often coincide with rising global average temperatures.

However, the scale of warming and the intensity of extreme weather depend on the strength and type of the El Nino event as well as regional climate responses, she said. "At this stage, it is too early to say that a super El Nino would necessarily lead to the hottest year on record," Chen said.

The heightened public interest reflects growing concern over climate-related risks as extreme weather events become more frequent worldwide, she added.

Experts also warned that climate discussions on social media, including claims about "the hottest year" or catastrophic weather, can sometimes involve exaggeration or information taken out of context.

Chen urged the public to interpret such predictions cautiously, noting that climate forecasting always involves uncertainties, particularly regarding the timing, intensity, and regional impacts of an El Nino event.

"Regardless of whether El Nino develops this year, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has become a new reality under global climate change," Chen said, advising the public to stay alert to weather warnings from authoritative sources and prepare accordingly. Farmers should plan agricultural activities carefully, while city planners should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power, water, and transportation networks, she added.