Expert: trade remains a force for cooperation despite growing uncertainty

International trade remains one of the most effective ways to create prosperity, strengthen economic ties and reduce conflict between nations, according to a leading maritime and trade analyst, who warned that rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global trading system.

Speaking at the centennial celebration of World Trade Week in Los Angeles last week, Peter Tirschwell, vice-president of maritime and trade at S&P Global Market Intelligence, emphasized the enduring value of international commerce at a time when tariffs, geopolitical rivalry and supply chain disruptions are increasingly influencing trade flows.

"We believe firmly in the value of trade to expand markets, create opportunities, create interdependencies and thus bring countries and societies together," Tirschwell said. "If they trade together, then they are less likely to go to war with each other."

Tirschwell, who previously served as editor-in-chief of the Journal of Commerce, said the publication has maintained a pro-trade perspective since its founding in 1827, reflecting the view that trade promotes economic growth, efficiency and international cooperation.

"The expansion of global commerce has helped lower costs, increase consumer choice and support job creation around the world," he said, adding that the development of the European Union after World War II as one example of how economic integration can help foster stability and cooperation among nations.

According to Tirschwell, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach provide another example of trade's economic benefits. Together, the two ports form the largest container gateway in the Western Hemisphere and support hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout Southern California and beyond.

"The message being that trade creates jobs, it creates growth, it creates opportunity, it creates prosperity," Tirschwell said. "But sadly, that is not the message that we are hearing out of Washington, DC right now."

His remarks came amid continued debate over the Trump administration's tariff policies, including the "Liberation Day" tariffs announced in April 2025. The measures, which imposed additional duties on imports from numerous trading partners, have contributed to uncertainty for businesses and supply chains while prompting legal challenges and broader discussions about the future direction of US trade policy.

Tirschwell said the current environment represents a significant departure from the decades following the establishment of the World Trade Organization in 1995, when globalization and trade liberalization enjoyed broad international support.

"I grew up in an era that was favorable to trade," he said. "There used to be a global consensus regarding the value of trade."

Today, however, governments are playing a much larger role in shaping trade flows, often using tariffs and industrial policies to pursue strategic and geopolitical objectives.

"It's quite clear now that we've left behind an era of free trade, globalization and trade liberalization," Tirschwell said. "We've entered into a new era defined by national self-interest, geopolitical power plays and strategic supply chains."

He cited a recent study by McKinsey & Company projecting that as much as one-third of global trade could shift to new trade corridors over the next decade.

Early signs of that trend may already be emerging.

"In the first quarter of 2026 versus the first quarter of 2025, global container volumes grew approximately 5 percent, while US containerized imports dropped by 5 percent," Tirschwell said. "Trade is diversified, and it could start to bypass the US on a long-term basis."

He also pointed to growing pressures on global shipping networks. Traffic through the Suez Canal remains below historical levels because of security concerns in the Middle East, while tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to create uncertainty for global logistics operators.

"Freedom of navigation is now under threat in ways that it has not been for decades," he said.

As a result, businesses are adapting to what Tirschwell described as a "permanent state of disruption", requiring new approaches to supply chain management and investment planning.

"When companies think about trade today, the thinking has moved on," he said. "We are now in a permanent state of disruption, and therefore a whole new paradigm of thinking is beginning to take shape."

Despite the challenges, Tirschwell remained optimistic about the long-term outlook for international commerce. He noted that many regions, particularly Africa, are expected to grow faster than the United States in the coming decades and are attracting increasing attention from shipping lines, freight forwarders and logistics providers.

While acknowledging that global trade is entering a more complex era, Tirschwell said the continued investment by ports, airports and logistics operators demonstrates enduring confidence in international commerce and economic connectivity.

"It's not going to look the way it did in the past," he said. "But it's going to hold opportunity."