The cost of real estate in the capital will likely start to fall in the fourth quarter, housing market analysts are predicting.

They say the slew of policies recently introduced by the government to calm the volatile market should take effect by then.

Xing Zhihong, a spokesman with the Beijing survey team of the National Bureau of Statistics, is among those expecting the hot housing market to cool.

Xing said the number of homes that changed hands in Beijing dipped sharply in the first quarter, and falling transaction numbers usually precede a drop in prices.

"Beijing's property prices experienced similar adjustments in 2007 and 2008, when the transaction volume and price both went down for a while," Xing said during a press conference on Tuesday.

Based on statistics, a change in trading volume usually comes first, and around half a year later, a price adjustment will follow, he explained.

Others agreed with the assessment.

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"A significant decline in property prices will happen in the fourth quarter," Ren Qixin, the deputy general manager of Comprehensive Real Estate Service Corporation, said in an interview with Mirror Evening News.

Investment-led demand and speculation may soon be squeezed from Beijing's housing market and transaction volume will drop further, Ren predicted.

"I suggest people postpone their purchase plans to avoid big losses in assets. Perhaps they should wait for a while and take action when the price becomes stable," Ren said.

On April 14, the State Council issued a differentiated credit policy during an executive meeting.

According to the policy, people buying a first home that is larger than 90 sq m must make a minimum down payment of at least 30 percent of the total price. Previously, it was 20 percent.

For people buying a second home, the minimum down payment has been raised to 50 percent from 20 percent.

Banks must also now charge a 110 percent interest rate over the standard interest rate for second home purchases.

On April 17, the State Council introduced stricter regulations aimed at curbing investment-led deals.

In regions that have been plagued by excessively high real estate prices, limited housing supply or abnormal price hikes, the State Council now requires commercial banks to suspend loans to people who already own two homes and who are looking to buy more.

Cheng Yun, research director at Centaline Property Agency, said the regulation is likely to increase the cost of capital for house buyers and cut off sources of multiple financing.

"It (the regulation) is bound to have a huge impact on the market. Speculation will be choked," Cheng said. "Purchase demand will be curtailed and transaction volume will greatly shrink in May."