Can Abe last his 4-year term?
By Yang Bojiang (China Daily) Updated: 2014-12-20 08:09Yet Abe may have taken a risky gamble, because his political career and the well-being of Japanese people both would suffer greatly should his "three arrows" strategy of hyper-easy monetary policy, government spending and reforms continue to produce no results.
Last month, he decided to postpone a second 10 percent tax hike to April 2017, raising concerns about how Japan will cope with its huge public debt. Plus, the election which cost more than 60 billion yen ($510 million) in taxpayers' money amid looming recession, could shave some of his power before he even finishes celebrating his victory.
On the other hand, Abe's tenure for the next four years, along with his probably unchanged Cabinet, could be a concern for many countries, especially China and the Republic of Korea. The first cause for concern is: Will Abe replace the 1995 Murayama Statement, the apology rendered by Tomiichi Murayama, then prime minister of Japan, for the atrocities committed by the Japanese army on neighboring countries before and during World War II, with something else?
Other serious matters of concern are: Will Abe continue refusing to face up to Japan's wartime history? Will he keep trying to amend the peace Constitution to enable Japan to fully exercise the right of collective self-defense?
Yes and no. Judging from Abe's earlier attempts, maybe "yes". But he has very few choices left. His popularity ratings over the past two years have slid each time he has muscled through a security or military agenda, particularly in passing the "Special Secrets Protection Bill" which many consider a latent call to arms.
Besides, given people's demand for improving the economy and livelihoods, the Abe administration will have to be more pragmatic and spend less time trying to amend the Constitution. Even if none of the above problems stand in his way, Abe cannot amend the Constitution unless his coalition wins the 2016 Senate election, by which time "Abenomics" could shatter his dream.
Therefore, the top priority for the Abe administration, plagued by a sagging national economy and mounting doubts, should be to improve relations with Japan's Asian neighbors in the following years. In this effort, Abe, as a right-leaning politician, will hardly be thwarted by Japan's rightist forces if he sticks to the four-point agreement reached with China in November. Of course, Abe can get this added bonus only if he really wants to improve Sino-Japanese ties.
The author is the deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
(China Daily 12/20/2014 page6)
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