Japan, US defense budgets don't bode well

For obvious reasons, the recent decisions by Japan and the United States to hike their defense budgets for 2024 have sparked concerns. With Japan unveiling a 16 percent surge and the US allocating $886 billion, surpassing its 2023 budget by $28 billion, the Asia-Pacific region is bracing for potential tremors.

Not surprisingly, the US, in justifying its hefty defense expenditure, explicitly anchored its fiscal 2024 request in the context of its competition with China. Such an acknowledgment underscores Washington's strategic priorities. Yet the sheer magnitude of US defense spending, dwarfing the combined budgets of the subsequent 10 nations, raises serious questions.

Critics of the administration of US President Joe Biden have been warning against the implications of this unchecked militarization, advocating for a more judicious allocation of resources that could address pressing domestic concerns. Many dissenting voices in the US are also asking the Biden administration to pay attention to critical national issues such as climate change and healthcare rather than competition with China. This underscores a broader debate within the US about its global posture. The US' consistent alignment with strategic interests, sometimes at the expense of global peace, remains contentious.

In a troubling parallel development, Japan also unveiled its defense budget for the coming fiscal year, marking a significant departure from its post-World War II defense stance. The $55.76 billion budget, a 16 percent increase over last year, accompanied by eased restrictions on arms exports, signals Japan's aggressive military posture in the Asia-Pacific.

This move, ostensibly to toe the US line to counter China's influence, has raised concerns about regional stability and the delicate balance that has held since World War II. The budget allocates substantial funds to bolstering military infrastructure, enhancing operational capabilities and developing advanced weaponry — paving the way for a potential arms race in the region.

Central to this policy revamp is the authorization to export domestically developed missiles and artillery. Notably, this includes the prospective shipment of Patriot air defense missiles abroad. This controversial decision, the most sweeping in nearly a decade, reflects Japan's aggressive stance in bolstering its military power and fostering alliances in the Asia-Pacific theater.

While this move may solidify Japan's ties with the US, it also injects new acrimony into the already complex matrix of the region. Such a shift risks unsettling the delicate equilibrium of regional dynamics. With approximately 2 trillion yen ($14 billion) allocated to resolving spare-part deficits and enhancing combat preparedness, Tokyo showcases its commitment to military modernization, a far cry from its pacifist Constitution.

This budgetary framework underscores Japan's deliberate attempt to start a new arms race in the region under the pretext of "regional stability and peace".Tokyo's ambitious plans to augment its military arsenal with hypersonic and precision-guided-missiles, alongside the procurement of advanced naval vessels, signal a significant shift in regional dynamics.

The earmarking of 400 billion yen for the introduction of 30 mobile landing craft and transport helicopters, ostensibly for swift deployment in the southwestern islands, adds a layer of complexity to the East Asian security landscape. Furthermore, Japan's move to amalgamate its ground, maritime and air self-defense forces into a unified maritime transport group further raises questions about its strategic intent.

Japan's incremental shift away from its pacifist principles, evidenced by eased restrictions on arms exports and heightened defense spending, suggests Tokyo's recalibrated strategic calculus. Interestingly, Japan's internal discourse also reflects divisions, with many pacifists challenging the constitutional implications of these militaristic strides. Yet Japan's evolving defense posture, when juxtaposed against historical contexts, particularly its wartime aggressions, evokes concerns.

Japan's increased defense expenditure aligns with the mammoth US military budget, signaling a formidable alliance that risks escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific. Considering the US influence on Tokyo's policies, Japan's militarization threatens regional stability, prompting concerns about its fiscal sustainability.

The budget's allocation for joint military ventures and collaborations with the US and the Republic of Korea creates qualms about an emerging "small NATO" in the Asia-Pacific, adding a layer of complexity to regional dynamics. Initiatives like the US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Summit and calls for expanded military alliances necessitate introspection about the broader objectives of regional stability.

Japan's recent decisions, from its defense budget to environmental policies, contribute to an evolving regional narrative that poses challenges to China and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The discharge of contaminated wastewater from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean, despite international reservations, amplifies concerns about Tokyo's unilateral decisions and their implications for regional peace and stability.

The Asia-Pacific region stands at a pivotal juncture. The recalibrated defense postures of major players, juxtaposed against historical legacies and contemporary challenges, contribute to an intricate geopolitical mosaic. The unprecedented pivot in Japan's defense strategy risks disrupting long-standing regional relationships and introducing a destabilizing variable into the Asia-Pacific dynamic.

Beijing has adopted a more holistic approach. China views its growth and stability as intrinsic to regional and global harmony. Instead of becoming part of an arms race, the nation maintains a focus on comprehensive development, mutual cooperation and upholding multilateral frameworks.

Japan's militarization is viewed with apprehension by neighboring countries, as it might escalate East Asian tensions rather than easing them. China may be compelled to take countermeasures to ensure regional stability and its own security. The push by the US for increased military engagement in the region, particularly against China, further fuels concerns about a potential arms race and geopolitical rivalry.

The Asia-Pacific region, which is grappling with transformative shifts, must navigate this evolving situation cautiously. The US role in shaping Japan's defense policies raises questions about its intent in the region and the potential consequences for global peace. The delicate balance that has prevailed since World War II is at risk, and the Asia-Pacific must collectively address this issue to ensure a harmonious and interconnected future.

The author is an international affairs commentator and freelancer based in Karachi, Pakistan.